Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
